| | | | | | | 1. | New Commons: managing shared, vulnerable resources | | | | | Commons are traditionally defined as shared resources, managed by those who use them, that are vulnerable to social dilemmas? that is, the tension between the individual and the group can lead to resource destruction or dysfunction. The commons most people are familiar with involves a shared, exhaustible, material resource, such as public pastures or fish stocks.
But new commons are rapidly emerging. Many are children of the Internet?information and media commons?enabled by ubiquitous information and constant connectivity. Others are resources humans have long been enjoying, but have only recently identified as vulnerable shared resources?for example, local commerce or transactional trust. New and not so new social structures, such as investing clubs and peer?to?peer networks, are being combined with new technologies to create infrastructure commons. An illustration is FON (http://www.fon.com/), which is trying to build a wireless network from the individual contribution of users who voluntarily share their bandwidth.
A conflux of forces has contributed to the creation of these new commons. These include perceived institutional failure to protect public goods, the commoditization of tangible and intangible common resources, and new models of self?organization and open systems. New commons are springing up in the fertile ground of ?in?between? spaces?between private and public, social and economic, digital and physical, individual and group, tangible and intangible?creating new platforms for defining our relationships to each other, our resources, and our collective long-term future.
| | | | | 2. | End of Cyberspace: blending the digital with the physical | | | | | The notion of cyberspace will fade over the coming decade as the material, geographic, and social qualities of information come to the fore. An emerging generation of cross?impact technologies, including flexible displays, wireless devices, ever?smaller processors and memory, physical and digital tags, and geolocation technologies will let us move computing and communications off our desks and laps, and out into the world. This shift will have deep implications for the way we think about the relationship between information, technologies, and people, and for the way we use information technologies.
Virtual reality spaces, such as Second Life, will be blended into physical reality spaces, not as an alternative to one?s ?first life,? but as an integral component. Simulations will also become integrated into how we experience of the physical world. Imagine walking down the street of Manhattan or San Francisco wearing glasses that let you see projections of changes in sea level.
Rather than prepare for a future where cyberspace has rendered books, newspapers, libraries, offices, and universities obsolete, we will experiment with devices, spaces, and practices that blend the digital and physical. Our newfound ability to integrate information fluidly into objects, places, and social interactions will affect everything from the way we organize knowledge and the design of workplaces, to commerce and urban planning, to copyright and politics.
| | | | | 3. | Sick Herd: addressing signs of environmental and biological distress | | | | | Despite a century of dramatic medical and public?health breakthroughs that have extended human life expectancies by as much as 20 to 30 years, there are indications today that the human species is becoming a sick herd. From rapid increases in immuno?compromised populations, to urban overcrowding and chronic diseases in aging populations, the stresses on human health are growing.
The world?s population is showing increasing signs of social, environmental, and biological distress. Indicators include increased prevalence of asthma, allergies, fatigue, depression, and violence. Accompanied by global flows of capital, trade, people, and media, new> epidemiological patterns are emerging.
At the same time, the capacity of society to respond to health challenges has declined. Since the 1980s, public health agencies worldwide have been eviscerated. Medicine relies increasingly on prescription drugs, the cost of which is expected to more than double by 2011 in the United States alone. New diagnostic and therapeutic regimes have arguably increased demands on the health system to treat previously nonmedical conditions. Meanwhile, compromised populations in some parts of the world are facing a downward spiral in their ability to provide their own food and family care?let alone pay for pharmaceutical solutions.
While these effects will be felt throughout the global economy, local populations will exhibit highly differentiated patterns of disease, requiring new and targeted interventions. This will stimulate a variety of responses, from lifestyle coping strategies, to social panic, to new market demands.
| | | | | | 4. | Participatory Culture: creating the social fabric from the bottom up | | | | | | People want to be involved in the society around them, and, empowered by new tools and practices, they will take part in cultural production. This constellation of changes is helping create a societal infrastructure that is less monolithic and more networked, oriented less around top?down distribution, and more around bottom-up creation, and which is ultimately more sustainable and more participatory.
News media is witnessing a surge in user-generated content. Sites like Kiva.org and Globalgiving.com promise to reshape models and methods of philanthropy. Through sites such as Wikipedia, collective knowledge is constructed through user contribution. Online conomies, like eBay and Craigslist, are made possible not by retailer supply, but by individual participation. Even corporations are facing increasing pressure from shareholder activism and consumer buying collectives.
Taking advantage of lightweight infrastructures ? for everything from media to energy and fabrication ? many more people will participate in the creation of the cultural fabric that defines who we are and how we will manage the dilemmas that face the world in the coming decade. A ?do it yourself? attitude, amplified by new channels of expression, new media literacy, and effective networking strategies, will enable widespread contribution to the social, cultural, economic, and political discourses that interweave daily life. | | | | | | |
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